Bursting bubbles or deflating balloons?

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Bursting bubbles or deflating balloons?

Using Bitcoin data, this presentation shows that speculative markets often rise quickly but decline slowly—more like deflating balloons than bursting bubbles

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Courselet Content

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General Overview

Description

This presentation explores the behavior of speculative markets using Bitcoin as a case study. Through simulation and model fitting, it demonstrates how rapid price inflation is often followed by a gradual decline—more akin to a "deflating balloon" than a "bursting bubble." The analysis incorporates volatility, non-normality, and dynamic tail risk, offering insights into the mechanisms driving these market patterns.

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Meet the instructors !

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About the Instructor

Professor of econometrics, UCLouvain